BF Bot Manager Correct Score Insurance: Lay the Draw 0-0 Protection (2026)

The Biggest Weakness of Lay the Draw — Solved

Lay the Draw is one of the most widely used football trading strategies on Betfair. The logic is simple: lay the draw at kick-off, wait for a goal, back the draw at lower odds to lock in a profit. Works extremely well in matches that produce an early goal.

The problem is the 0-0. In approximately 8–10% of matches, neither team scores. When this happens, the draw odds shorten as time passes, and a standard LTD position runs at a growing loss until the trader is forced to cut at minute 30–35. This is the single most common account-draining scenario for LTD traders.

0-0 correct score insurance eliminates this specific risk by backing the 0-0 Correct Score market at the same time as the LTD entry. If the match ends goalless, the Correct Score bet pays out enough to cover the LTD liability — turning a 100% loss into approximately a break-even result.

The Insurance Formula

The stake for the 0-0 insurance bet is calculated from the LTD liability:

Insurance Stake = LTD Liability ÷ (0-0 CS Odds − 1)

Worked example

Scenario outcomes

The key insight: the insurance converts the worst-case scenario from a full-liability wipeout into a break-even. You pay for this protection with the £11 insurance stake on every trade — even winning trades are reduced by this amount. Whether the strategy is net profitable depends on the frequency and size of green-up wins versus the accumulated insurance cost.

Setting Up Both Bets in BF Bot Manager

Step 1: LTD entry rule (Market Odds — The Draw)

Configure as described in the main BF Bot Manager LTD strategy guide. Entry: lay the draw in-play at kick-off, price 3.00–4.00.

Step 2: Insurance entry rule (Correct Score — 0-0)

In BF Bot Manager, the insurance stake can be entered as a fixed amount or — if your LTD stake is consistent — pre-calculated from your standard liability. For variable stakes, note the formula and calculate the insurance amount per session.

Step 3: CS insurance exit rule

If a goal is scored and you green up the LTD position, the 0-0 CS back will not pay out (the score is no longer 0-0 after a goal). This is expected — the insurance bet is simply lost. You do not need an explicit exit rule for the CS position: it either pays out at final whistle (0-0) or it loses naturally when a goal is scored and the correct score market settles.

When Insurance is Not Worth the Cost

Low 0-0 CS odds

When 0-0 Correct Score odds are below 8.0, the market is pricing a goalless draw as genuinely likely. The insurance stake becomes expensive relative to the potential LTD profit. In these matches — usually tactical, low-scoring encounters — the LTD strategy itself is less attractive. Consider skipping both.

High LTD liability relative to CS odds

If draw odds are very high (4.5+), your lay liability per unit of stake is large. The insurance stake formula means you need a proportionally larger CS bet, which reduces net profit on winning trades significantly. Focus on draw odds of 3.00–3.80 for the best insurance cost efficiency.

P&L Impact on Strategy Expectation

The insurance adds a fixed cost to every trade. On a £50 LTD stake with £110 liability and £11 insurance:

• Match ends with a goal and clean green-up: net profit reduced from ~£25 to ~£14
• 0-0 match: loss eliminated (was −£110, now ~£0)
• Time stop-loss at minute 30: total loss increases by £11 (£30 + £11 = £41)

The strategy is net beneficial when your 0-0 rate exceeds the cost of insurance across your match portfolio. For a 10% 0-0 rate on qualifying matches, each 0-0 saves £110. The insurance cost per match is £11. Over 10 matches (1 expected 0-0), you spend £110 in insurance and save £110 once — exactly break-even. Over 20 matches with 2 expected 0-0s, you spend £220 and save £220. The true benefit is variance reduction: you no longer have catastrophic wipeout events that cause emotional trading errors.

Download the Settings Checklist

The LTD Bot Settings Checklist (free with newsletter subscription) covers all the rule parameters for this strategy in a single printable reference sheet — including the insurance stake formula, entry conditions and all three stop-loss rules.

See Also

• Full LTD strategy guide
• Stop-loss and time-exit rules
• Lay the Draw explained
• All BF Bot Manager strategy guides