The Brutal Truth of Football Trading: Discipline is the Only Edge

The “Lay the Draw” (LTD) strategy is the defining trade of Betfair football markets, but many traders find themselves frustrated. The core problem is simple: LTD has one catastrophic weakness—the 0-0 draw. To solve this, elite traders adopt the powerful BF Bot Manager Strategy which automates both risk management and execution.

When a match ends goalless, you suffer your full liability loss.

To overcome this structural flaw, traders immediately incorporate a Correct Score Backup (often called “insurance”)—a targeted bet placed in the Correct Score market designed specifically to negate, or at least minimize, the loss from a goalless result.

This ultimate guide integrates the three core exit strategies with the mandatory Correct Score Insurance layer. Crucially, it shows you precisely how to execute this complex, multi-market trading plan flawlessly using automation software like BF Bot Manager.

This guide is your transition—moving you from a reactive gambler to a disciplined, automated trading professional.

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The Insurance Layer: Backing the 0-0 Correct Score

Before tackling the exits, you must establish the protective layer that runs throughout the trade. This is the first step toward true risk management.

Component	Description
The Setup	Simultaneously Lay the Draw (Match Odds) AND Back the 0-0 Correct Score (CS).
Objective	This setup ensures the worst-case scenario (0-0) results in a break-even or small profit, guaranteeing a refund on your liability.
Staking Principle	Calculate the exact stake needed on the 0-0 CS to cover the liability from your LTD bet.

Practical Example: Eliminating the 0-0 Risk

• LTD Bet: You Lay the Draw for £100 at odds of 3.60. (Liability: £260.
• CS Backup: The 0-0 Correct Score odds are 12.00.
  • Stake Calculation: Liability / (Odds – 1) = £260 / 11 = £23.64.
• Action: You Back the 0-0 Correct Score for £23.64 at 12.00.
• Result (If 0-0): The £260 loss from LTD is covered by the £260 profit from the 0-0 CS bet. Net result: -£23.64 loss—a massive improvement over -£260.

🤖 Automation with BF Bot Manager

This dual-market entry is a perfect task for automation because the calculation demands precision. The core BF Bot Manager Strategy relies on perfect initial hedging.

• LTD Entry Rule: The bot places your Lay bet in the Match Odds market.
• CS Insurance Rule: Immediately, the bot triggers, calculates the liability, and places the corresponding Back bet in the Correct Score market.

The Automated Edge: This guarantees every trade starts protected, achieving maximum risk mitigation from the first whistle.

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Strategy Selection: Mapping Odds to Exits

Before placing a single bet, you must decide which exit protocol to use based on the pre-match odds. This eliminates emotional, in-play decisions.

Pre-Match Draw Odds	Strategy Recommended	Rationale
Below 3.30 (Strong Favourite)	Aggressive Exit (3)	Odds signal high probability of multiple goals from the favourite; justifies higher risk for max reward.
3.30 to 3.80 (Standard Trade)	Partial Exit (Variant)	Balanced odds require securing profit immediately while leaving room for growth. This is the optimal trade-off.
Above 3.80 (Even/Underdog Goal Likely)	Defensive Exit (2) ONLY	High odds signal a likely 0-0 or tight game. Minimize time exposed; focus on cutting losses early if no goal by 60 mins.

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Here is an example of the Soccer Bot Setting Form to give you an idea of what it looks like:

1. The Conservative Exit: “First Goal Secured Profit” (Exit 1)

This exit is the solution to Greed. It makes you take the money and remove the risk, preventing you from holding for “just one more goal.”

🤖 Automation with BF Bot Manager

• Rule 1 (Goal Trigger): If the score changes from 0-0:
  • BF Bot Manager Logic: Rule Type: Green Up Trade on Selection applied to the Draw market.
  • Action: The bot executes both market exits simultaneously, locking in profits before the market can stabilize. This is the simplest part of the BF Bot Manager Strategy.

The Automated Edge: The bot reacts instantly to the goal alert, often securing better odds than a human could manage, and thus maximizing the net profit captured.

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2. The Defensive Exit: “Pre-Determined Time Stop Loss” (Exit 2)

This is the solution to Hope and Fear. It prevents you from watching a goalless game until the 85th minute, praying for a goal while losing all your capital.

🤖 Automation with BF Bot Manager

• Rule 2 (70 Min. Trigger): If the match time is 70 minutes AND the score is 0-0:
  • BF Bot Manager Logic: Rule Type: Stop Loss or Close Trade applied to the Draw. Condition: Selection Time In Play >= 70 minutes.
  • Action: The bot places the Back stake, closing the LTD for your pre-set max manageable loss (e.g., -£30).

The Automated Edge: The bot ensures this is executed at the exact right moment, regardless of the score or your emotional state, maximizing your loss-cutting efficiency and protecting your capital.

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3. The Aggressive Exit: “Two-Goal or Odds-Target Maximize” (Exit 3)

This strategy demands maximum profit, rewarding your patience when one team shows true dominance.

🤖 Automation with BF Bot Manager

• Rule 3 (Maximum Profit Trigger): If the score changes to 2-0, 3-1, etc.:
  • BF Bot Manager Logic: Rule Type: Green Up Trade on Selection with Condition: Match Score Change or Selection Price > [Specific Odds Target, e.g., 8.00].
  • Action: The bot executes the Draw back bet and the 0-0 cancellation simultaneously.

The Automated Edge: The profit gain from waiting for the two-goal lead is substantial, making the cost of the 0-0 insurance an insignificant deduction from the final earnings. Thus, the bot’s speed is vital to capitalize on the massive odds spike after the second goal before the market corrects itself.

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4. 🧭 The Partial Exit: Maximizing Safety and Profit (Advanced)

The Partial Exit is the optimal strategy for standard trades (Draw Odds 3.30–3.80) because it combines safety and profit seeking.

• The Concept: A goal is scored. You immediately green up 50% of your profit using Exit 1 logic (Conservative). Then, you let the remaining 50% ride, targeting the two-goal lead (Exit 3 logic), but with a hard time-based stop loss (Exit 2 logic) at the 75th minute.
• BF Bot Manager Logic: This requires two separate “Green Up” rules triggered by the same goal, one for 50% and one for the remaining 50% subject to further conditions (time/score).

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🔄 Crisis Exit: When the Underdog Scores First

This is the most challenging scenario. When the underdog scores (e.g., 0-1), the Draw price often drops because the market expects the favorite to equalize, resulting in a 1-1 draw.

The Automated Solution: Implement a layered, partial-recovery strategy. This advanced BF Bot Manager Strategy relies on multiple contingent rules.

1. Stop-Loss Layer: Immediately set a time limit. If the score is 0-1 at the 60th minute, the bot executes a full stop loss (Exit 2 logic).
2. Hedge Layer: For strong favorites, the bot can place a small Lay bet on the Correct Score 0-1 and/or a Lay bet on the Underdog (Match Odds). This hedges against the score remaining 0-1 and bets on the favorite’s inevitable push.
3. Profit Trigger: The bot waits for the score to become 1-1. Once this happens, the Draw odds soar, and the bot executes the Green Up (Exit 1 logic), often recovering the entire initial loss.

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Comparative Financial Outcomes (100 Stake, 3.60 LTD Odds)

The table below clearly illustrates why the chosen exit strategy dictates your long-term profitability.

Scenario	1. Conservative Exit (20 min 1-0)	2. Defensive Exit (70 min 0-0)	3. Aggressive Exit (60 min 2-0)
LTD Profit/Loss	+£59	-£32	+£99
CS Insurance Cost	-£24	N/A (bet remains live)	-£24
Net Result	+£35 Net	-£32 Max Loss	+£75 Net
0-0 Match Finish	N/A	Break Even (Insurance Pays)	N/A

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The Ultimate Conclusion: Trading with BF Bot Manager

The Lay the Draw trade with Correct Score Insurance is the most robust version of this strategy, but manual execution is infeasible. This method demands constant multi-market monitoring, rapid calculation, and perfect emotional control.

You must transition from a watcher to a programmer. Your job as a successful trader is to move past the screen and into the data:

1. Analyze and Select: Use xG and FGT data to find the best trades. You can find detailed statistics on historical performance and current form using the following website: whoscored.
2. Code the Strategy: Build the LTD Lay and 0-0 Back rules into BF Bot Manager.
3. Automate the Exits: Program the Three Exit Strategies (and the Partial Exit variant) to execute without fail.

Let the bot handle the mechanics. Furthermore, by delegating execution to automation, you gain the single greatest edge in sports trading: unshakeable, automated discipline. The bot becomes your emotionless employee, executing trades while you focus on analysis or pursue other ventures. This is the true financial freedom automation offers.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is the ideal time to exit a Lay the Draw trade?

A: If no goal has been scored, the ideal time to exit is between the 65th and 75th minute to implement a managed loss. This prevents the full loss that occurs if the match ends 0-0. If a goal has been scored, the ideal time is immediately, unless your pre-match analysis (based on odds) justifies holding for a Partial or Aggressive Exit.

Q: Is Lay the Draw still profitable?

A: Yes, but the edge has moved from simple early exits to advanced, disciplined, and often automated strategies. The key to profitability lies in superior match selection (using data like xG) and strict risk management, especially by using insurance (like backing 0-0).

Q: How do I handle an underdog scoring first?

A: When the underdog scores first, the Draw odds often drop, putting your trade into a negative position. The best action is to either accept a small, immediate loss or implement a layered hedge (laying the leading correct score) while the favorite has time to score an equalizer. Do not hold the position past the 60-70 minute mark unless the favorite is dominating.

Q: What is ‘greening up’ in sports trading?

A: “Greening up” is the process of placing a bet opposite to your initial position (i.e., Backing the Draw after Laying the Draw) to guarantee an even profit across all possible match outcomes (Home Win, Away Win, Draw). This locks in your profit regardless of the final score.

Q: Do I need a bot like BF Bot Manager to use the LTD strategy?

A: While you can use the basic LTD strategy manually, using advanced, multi-market strategies (like those involving Correct Score insurance and specific time-based exits) is nearly impossible to execute perfectly without automation. A bot provides the essential speed and emotional discipline required for long-term profitability in these specific layered trades.

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Disclaimer: Trading Risk

Trading involves significant risk. There is no guarantee of profit. Never trade with money you can’t afford to lose. Past performance, even with automation, does not guarantee future results.